TUES. AUG. 5 THOUGHTS

So oil had another major sell-off yesterday and the market sighed ho-hum-like. Why? It is as simple as it gets- the 2nd largest sector of the S&P 500 after the financial sector is the energy sector. As discussed in a blog post early last month, it is entirely possible for oil prices to fall yet the stock market falls with it. Stocks in the energy, steel, materials, and metals sector were all hit very hard yesterday with issues like FCX down 11, POT down 22, MOS down 14, and many other equities in similar industries down 15% or so across the board. This is one of those instances in which watching the market barometers do not matter. Furthermore, this hammers home a point which has been repeatedly made in this space- this blog is aimed for day traders. It does not matter if the market is up or down- you want to be where the action is. So, don’t get mixed up in the ‘why’s and ‘why nots’ of certain moves if you are trying to make a living from day trading; simply go with it, trade rapidly, limit your risk, and for the most part you will be better off.

Previous paragraph notwithstanding, there was a notable change in tone in the European bourses with stocks in Germany for instance up over 1%. Oil continues its plunge in the early going. Futures are very strong in the U.S.—a trend that will likely continue as financials are up as well. Day-trading wise, it will be a hard day in all likelihood with much of the action taking place in the first and last hour of the day. The Fed will announce its interest rate policy at 2;15PM (a near certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged).

TGIC- may be interesting thru yesterday’s high of 2.47 if/when it gets there

NUE, X- among the steels that were clobbered yesterday. Look to buy/short thru unch depending on where they open or an A-B-A2 of some sort; preferably to long side.

MEE, FCX, POT, HK, ACI ,BTU, CHK, PBR, WLT, UDRL, LDL, TRA, MOS- among the energies and materials that were clobbered yesterday. Look to buy/short thru unch depending on where they open or an A-B-A2 of some sort; preferably to long side.

DCT- bad earnings; looking for A-B-A2 to downside in particular

JRCC- bad earnings. If coals bounce, definitely a buy thru unch otherwise an A-B-A2 to downside

MVL- good earnings. Likely A-B-A2 to upside

MSTR- terrible earnings…looking for A-B-A2 to downside particularly if it opens north of 58.

HNT- terrible earnings; looking at some sort of A-B-A2, particularly if it opens near unch (which it probably will not).


Earnings:
TUES AUG 5 BEF

ACOR -.48/12M -.48/13.12M -2.10/51M -2.22/75M

ADM .67/16.03B .67/16.74B 2.91/64.04B 2.96/69.89B

ALD .32/130M .33/138M 1.41/533M 1.42/596M

AMSC -.06/40M -.07/42M -.22/176M .18/250M

BBG .63/152M .68/164M 2.82/645M 3.44/768M

CEDC .51/388M .76/434M 2.77/1.69B 3.82/1.99B

CMS .13/1.41B .28/1.30B 1.21/6.73B 1.31/6.95B

COV .66/2.49B .65/2.51B 2.56/9.75B 2.89/10.40B

CSE .24/160M .42/175M 1.70/671M 1.92/906M

DHI -.70/1.44B -.31/1.78B -5.33/6.64B .31/5.85B

DNR .55/374M .57/385M 2.14/1.49B 2.58/1.71B

DTG -.41/448M .73/542M -.44/1.80B .74/1.89B

DUK .25/3.15B .46/3.80B 1.28/13.37B 1.35/13.81B

EAT .42/932M .37/889M 1.41/3.61B 1.59/3.66B

EMR .81/6.41B .88/6.68B 3.09/24.71B 3.41/26.26B

EPL .47/119M .73/134M 1.62/472M 2.73/565M

EXPD .34/1.45B .39/1.61B 1.42/6.01B 1.70/6.93B

GET .20/255M .01/243M .25/974M .96/1.08B

HEW .46/772M .50/787M 1.91/3.12B 2.23/3.26B

HNT .74/3.82B 1.08/3.85B 3.17/15.36B 3.68/16.25B

HSIC .68/1.58B .74/1.67B 2.96/6.66B 3.38/7.19B

JOE .11/86M .14/83M .82/380M .59/367M

JRCC -.28/158M .15/173M -.69/660M 5.98/1.02B

LEAP .03/478M -.25/504M -.76/1.98B -.05/2.51B

MGM .43/1.89B .40/1.87B 1.65/7.52B 1.91/7.64B

MVL .44/129M .54/168M 1.97/547M 1.97/637M

PG .78/21.05B 1.00/21.69B 3.50/83.29B 3.85/88.40B

PDX .78/249M .86/258M 3.19/1.02B 3.64/1.13B

PXD 1.36/659M 1.50/714M 5.52/2.65B 7.71/3.24B

RDC 1.04/564M 1.18/621M 4.35/2.33B 5.33/2.69B

RRI .17/2.67B .67/3.59B 1.17/12.03B 1.30/12.43B

TAP 1.16/1.76B 1.12/1.43B 3.51/5.93B 3.84/5.57B

VNO 1.34/648M 1.32/656M 7.29/2.83B 6.20/2.94B

WY -.22/3.65B .03/3.75B -.38/13.76B 1.13/11.91B

XEC 2.53/600M 2.59/620M 9.00/2.28B 7.99/2.20B

TUES AUG 5 AFT

ACAS .72/279M .74/296M 2.98/1.12B 3.04/1.30B

AMKR .28/698M .35/740M 1.34/2.89B 1.38/3.05B

ARNA -.74/2.73M -.75/3.27M -2.98/13.11M -2.02/40M

BID 1.41/319M -.17/118M 2.41/902M 2.60/946M

BMRN .03/66M .10/76M .49/312M 1.14/422M

CBL .80/267M .82/274M 3.46/1.12B 3.66/1.17B

CCRT -1.47/52M .10/162M -3.32/377M .98/751M

CRL .73/344M .77/348M 2.97/1.38B 3.40/1.53B

CSC .76/4.29B .90/4.29B 4.30/17.67B 4.68/18.48B

CSCO .39/10.31B .40/10.40B 1.55/39.49B 1.69/43.72B

DEI .32/145M .33/140M 1.32/560M 1.44/587M

FCH .76/286M .56/272M 2.30/1.13B 2.50/1.15B

FIS .35/848M .40/863M 1.49/3.45B 1.73/3.70B

FST 1.51/456M 1.65/477M 5.85/1.80B 6.05/1.95B

GGC -.44/841M -.31/846M -2.69/3.24B -1.29/3.30B

GLBL .38/319M .43/320M 1.42/1.25B 1.85/1.45B

HCN .83/142M .84/147M 3.33/555M 3.52/601M

HLF .92/613M .84/602M 3.59/2.46B 4.15/2.70B

HME .86/126M .87/126M 3.39/505M 3.57/521M

HRS 1.02/1.43B .94/1.34B 3.46/5.30B 4.10/5.80B

INSP -.01/35M -.01/36M 0.00/153M .26/159M

IO .14/179M .24/237M .79/806M 1.10/1.01B

JBX .51/694M .46/696M 2.01/2.98B 2.28/3.09B

JCOM .40/61M .41/63M 1.61/248M 1.87/283M

LPS .57/467M .60/472M 2.38/1.84B 2.70/1.98B

MDRX .11/77M .16/85M .54/326M .74/383M

MOLX .41/869M .40/878M 1.42/3.33B 1.75/3.57B

NFP .67/304M .83/347M 3.05/1.35B 3.40/1.56B

NILE .17/74M .17/74M 1.03/350M 1.25/404M

NSR .29/119M .32/128M .92/502M 1.51/573M

NWS ? ? ? ?

ONXX .07/25M .12/30M .58/129M 1.32/172M

PCLN 1.41/496M 2.05/551M 5.54/1.88B 6.95/2.23B

RMD .39/220M .38/217M 1.49/821M 1.74/967M

SGY 2.90/227M 2.44/261M 10.57/1.05B 10.48/1.43B

SHO .86/277M .73/258M 2.95/1.08B 2.96/1.08B

SNCR .09/25M .12/29M .48/117M .66/140M

TX 1.22/2.49B 1.15/2.68B 5.31/10.75B 5.62/11.59B

UPL .65/281M .75/321M 3.01/1.22B 3.92/1.62B

VMC 1.10/1.07B 1.24/1.09B 3.29/3.97B 3.91/4.14B

VTR .69/124M .72/125M 2.81/497M 3.03/515M

WFMI .31/1.91B .27/1.93B 1.15/8.17B 1.53/9.47B

WMS .35/179M .25/157M 1.13/644M 1.42/722M
XCO .25/323M .29/334M 1.14/1.26B 1.43/1.47B

Good luck today.
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