MON. AUG. 4 THOUGHTS

On the surface, Friday was a relatively quiet summer day for the markets. But underneath the surface was something quite noticeable. Namely, as was discussed in this space few days ago, a leadership change of sort seemed to have subtly taken place in the last couple of weeks. This was very discernable on Friday. If you look at the energy sectors, stocks from oils to coals were all down on Friday. However, financials were broadly higher across the board with stocks like WB trading ahead almost 10% on the session on an otherwise sedate afternoon. Focusing on the day trading aspect here, it is very hard to change mindsets. This is true of course on the biggies- religion, politics…and of course sports! But, it is very true in trading as well. This is being brought up because while things can change at a moment’s notice, people are programmed to buy oils and sell financials based on the last few months. But the calendar does not read June anymore. It is a different time. So, should the recent rend continue, please be careful not to get caught on both sides. Obviously, things may reassert, but if not, a lot of people will get short financials intra-day simply because it has worked (and long oils as well) and get hit on both sides. Again, we are not forecasting on an intermediate-term what will happen, however it is important to note that a distinct change seems to have occurred underneath the market.

Overnight, markets throughout the world were down anywhere from fractionally to about 1.5% in Hong Kong. Oil is quiet, but a developing tropical storm in the Gulf may change that this week. Futures in the early going are down a little bit, but the story of the day- barring unforeseen circumstances- is that it is a summer Monday in August with a clear blue sky so not looking for an overly dramatic day today.

ELN- the crushing continued on Friday. It is bouncing a little this morning after S&P reaffirmed its debt on Friday afternoon. Look for A-B-A2 to upside if stock holds opening levels otherwise a short thru unch.

VPRT- closed near its high on strong earnings. If it opens flat to down, looking to buy north of 31 the first time through that spot on short covering.

CMED- good earnings. Looking for A-B-A2 of some sort and/or a short thru unch.

HUM- Looking for A-B-A2 in upside to particular after good earnings

X,NUE,CNX- closed on their lows on Friday. Looking for shorts thru unch if they open higher and break down a bit or A-B-A2 to upside.

ABK, RDN, UAM, PMI- all strong on Friday. No definitive trades per se, but a litmus test on the financials today will be how these hold up because they were all strong on Friday.

EYE- very bad earnings. Looking for A-B-A2 of some sort as it should open well lower.

Slim pickings. Tread carefully as there seems to be that August lull today.

MON AUG 4 BEF

BBD .39/6.20B .45/6.98B 1.71/23.84B 2.02/26.99B

CHD .63/581M .78/636M 2.81/2.41B 3.19/2.57B

CMED ?/33M ?/36M 1.74/169M 2.29/224M

CTB -.25/715M -.04/809M -.07/3.02B .77/3.20B

DISH .60/2.91B .54/2.92B 2.23/11.66B 2.51/12.44B

ERES .12/36M .12/35M .50/142M .64/159M

ETM .34/121M .37/118M 1.26/455M 1.20/447M

EYE .27/308M .30/297M 1.20/1.23B 1.58/1.32B

HUM 1.18/7.14B 1.36/7.24B 4.20/28.51B 5.71/30.93B

ICE 1.19/196M 1.33/215M 5.16/855M 6.54/1.10B

MDU .57/1.12B .74/1.33B 2.28/4.86B 2.44/5.02B

MGA 1.82/6.58B 1.26/6.09B 6.17/25.88B 6.53/26.84B

SBAC -.10/113M -.10/120M -.42/471M -.15/535M

TTEC .25/353M .28/355M 1.20/1.46B 1.34/1.58B

MON AUG 4 AFT

APC 1.77/3.68B 1.84/3.93B 6.77/14.82B 6.32/15.15B
ASCA .32/331M .35/341M 1.20/1.31B 1.34/1.37B

AXS 1.34/757M 1.18/767M 5.21/2.96B 5.09/2.97B

BLKB .24/73M .26/79M .98/302M 1.17/350M

CRK 1.20/227M 1.16/222M 4.95/888M 4.42/814M

CSR .37/86M .43/103M 1.66/392M 2.10/512M

DCT .18/65M .18/66M .70/263M .74/270M

DVA .83/1.37B .86/1.38B 3.39/5.52B 3.72/5.85B

HCP .56/262M .56/263M 2.25/1.06B 2.40/1.10B

HMA .11/1.13B .09/1.11B .47/4.55B .55/4.82B

HR .39/55M .40/56M 1.58/224M 1.64/240M

OEH .45/182M .64/200M 1.07/663M 1.34/716M

PBI .67/1.61B .70/1.61B 2.86/6.55B 3.16/6.85B

PFG .95/2.83B .97/2.89B 3.83/11.20B 4.45/12.07B

PPS .41/77M .46/81M 1.65/306M 1.87/323M

RATE .33/40M .35/41M 1.53/166M 1.87/194M

SM 1.28/297M 1.23/296M 5.08/1.27B 4.73/1.28B

UDR .36/129M .37/132M 1.51/520M 1.58/552M

WEN .37/627M .41/634M 1.11/2.44B 1.42/2.42B

WGL .14/478M -.35/325M 2.42/2.58B 2.41/2.64B
WY -.22/3.65B .03/3.75B -.38/13.76B 1.13/11.91B

Good luck today.

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