THURS. JUL. 31 THOUGHTS

In alliance with the ‘summer market’ sermon given a few weeks ago, there is another major theme that most traders do not understand. Namely, ‘if an idea you have does not set up correctly, move on.’ So many times, traders will say “Well, it’s close enough,” or even worse, they will put on a trade even if the situation they thought would occur does not occur. This overtrading inevitably leads to small losses. Let this be hammered home again- focus on the trade at hand; if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen. Move on. If a company’s CEO resigns and its stock price opens a little lower and you want to buy it thru unchanged and you miss it, do not buy it way way up. By all means, you should be flexible and ready to change your mind about something at a second’s notice, but do not deviate seriously from your battle plan. The reason this theme is being discussed is that so many people say “Well, I missed my original buying point, but I’ll buy it here since it is moving so fast;” inevitably, that is the exact time that the stock reverses direction. Bottom line- if you have a set-up that is not quite working out, do not enter. And if you are in a stock and the move you expect is not occurring in the time horizon you expect, don’t be in it anymore (i.e. if you think stock X will go to point Y in two minutes and it doesn’t, exit). Almost as important as capital appreciation is capital preservation.

Markets in Asia were up a bit overnight while the European bourses are quiet. In the U.S., futures are up yet again in the very early going ahead of the GDP report. Today will likely be a bit slower than yesterday with choppy trading; some profit taking is to be expected, but the tone of the market overall remains quite strong.

Reiterating-New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

V- good earnings; best trade of day will be when MA comes out. If earnings are good, V will explode. If MA is bad, short thru unch. Will be trade of week if that is the case.

CADX- positive drug news

CLF- good earnings, but has run up a lot

DRIV – good earnings

FSLR- great earnings

RIMM- on Cramer last night

BUCY- has had huge run-up; could be buy thru 76 if it opens down, an A-B-A2 if it opens higher or a short thru 76 if it opens higher, but sells off

RIG,SLB,HES,NOV- all closed at or near their highs yesterday

PRU- good earnings

SBUX- bad earnings for quarter, but sees strength into 2009

FLS- great earnings

FORM- good earnings

SYMC- good earnings

ITRI- good earnings

TYC- good earnings

MEA- good earnings

DSX,GNK- good earnings

GT- good earnings

IMCL- offered 60 in cash by BMY; if it trades above 60, it is a buy

MRO- bad earnings, but trying to split itself up

OCR- good earnings


Bad-

AKAM- wretched earnings

DIS- mediocre earnings

LVS- bad earnings

OII- bad earnings

XOM- bad earnings

HOLX- bad earnings

CNX- atrocious earnings

Table of today’s earnings:

THURS JUL 31 BEFORE

ABX .56/2.11B .63/2.18B 2.42/8.53B 2.71/8.96B

ADP .41/2.20B .50/2.16B 2.18/8.77B 2.41/9.46B

AEP .68/3.20B 1.11/3.96B 3.21/14.02B 3.40/14.68B

AET .93/7.87B 1.11/7.99B 4.01/31.57B 4.45/34.04B

APA 4.10/3.82B 3.26/4.03B 15.93/14.88B 17.14/16.07B

AUXL -.31/30M -.28/32M -1.15/123M -.83/149M

BABY .14/39M .19/42M .69/164M .87/190M

BPO .38/562M .39/565M 1.50/2.73B 1.59/2.81B

BWA .75/1.51B .64/1.46B 2.87/5.98B 3.29/6.68B

CBS .52/3.41B .46/3.39B 1.91/14.41B 1.94/14.73B

CEG 1.01/4.53B 1.74/5.48B 5.52/22.77B 6.40/23.99B

CNX .80/1.16B .89/1.19B 3.04/4.46B 8.60/6.39B

CPF .22/63M .40/65M 1.13/256M 2.08/261M

CRS 1.11/516M 1.16/493M 4.45/1.94B 4.89/2.05B

CTL .81/654M .81/654M 3.26/2.60B 3.32/2.55B

CVC .13/1.68B .11/1.64B .45/7.09B 1.04/7.53B

CVS .60/21.43B .61/21.42B 2.49/87.37B 2.89/93.76B

D .51/3.30B 1.01/3.70B 3.12/15.52B 3.34/16.16B

DLX .62/383M .79/390M 2.93/1.58B 3.28/1.59B

DSX .76/83M .76/83M 2.96/326M 2.71/315M

EK .16/2.44B .34/2.52B .62/10.30B 1.01/10.31B

ENDP .48/305M .54/322M 2.11/1.26B 2.64/1.46B

EXPE .39/794M .46/857M 1.45/3.09B 1.67/3.44B

FAF .43/1.73B .42/1.72B 1.52/6.76B 1.91/7.10B

FPL .93/4.14B 1.38/4.84B 3.88/15.90B 4.23/16.90B

GG .21/634M .27/715M 1.02/2.75B 1.28/3.26B

GNK 1.76/98M 1.74/101M 7.32/405M 9.37/537M

GT .62/5.27B .72/5.43B 2.46/20.98B 3.12/22.11B

HP 1.03/508M 1.13/545M 4.09/1.99B 5.04/2.42B

HOS .95/107M 1.07/116M 3.98/442M 5.12/555M

IFF .80/613M .83/631M 2.98/2.45B 3.34/2.55B

IP .39/5.81B .46/5.94B 1.76/23.42B 2.29/23.93B

IRM .18/760M .22/770M .78/3.07B .98/3.37B

ITG .58/183M .58/179M 2.56/756M 3.00/819M

K .81/3.27B .81/3.26B 3.00/12.87B 3.28/13.41B

LZ 1.07/1.25B 1.10/1.23B 4.30/4.96B 4.69/5.27B

MA 2.02/1.21B 2.50/1.27B 8.74/4.93B 11.06/5.62B

MDC -.82/371M -.53/372M -3.02/1.56B .08/1.30B

MEA .25/208M .26/208M .94/788M 1.13/892M

MO .45/4.17B .45/4.34B 1.67/15.94B 1.84/15.99B

MOT -.03/7.69B .01/7.85B .02/71.78B .37/34.11B

MRO 1.51/23.63B 2.13/27.50B 6.75/80.26B 7.90/91.62B

NMX .82/206M .91/220M 3.46/853M 4.41/1.02B

NWL .48/1.81B .42/1.79B 1.55/6.81B 1.70/6.94B

OCR .39/1.54B .46/1.55B 1.75/6.21B 1.99/6.29B

PH 1.50/3.23B 1.47/3.07B 5.55/12.03B 6.07/12.85B

PTEN .51/516M .56/555M 2.12/2.13B 2.54/2.40B

PTRY .29/2.45B .42/2.70B .63/8.73B 1.80/9.88B

REP 1.12/? 1.11/? 4.50/76.80B 4.18/71.49B

SFI .80/314M .73/314M 2.98/1.32B 3.01/1.29B

SPR .59/1.09B .58/1.11B 2.36/4.37B 2.61/4.74B

TEN .72/1.71B .37/1.63B 1.66/6.57B 2.24/7.15B

TRW .74/4.33B .16/3.85B 2.25/16.55B 2.41/17.20B

TYC .67/5.14B .71/5.28B 2.76/20.10B 3.26/21.02B

UTHR .58/64M .61/67M 2.18/264M 3.58/349M

VCI .25/615M .38/618M 1.37/2.51B 1.66/2.57B

WYN .47/1.18B .81/1.36B 2.23/4.78B 2.45/5.15B

XEL .30/2.52B .58/2.68B 1.52/10.99B 1.63/11.32B

XOM 2.52/144.39B 2.70/145.26B 9.82/667.74B 10.52/683.16B

THURS JUL 31 AFT

AFG .89/? .92/? 3.91/1.09B 3.54/?

AOC .69/1.93B .64/1.85B 2.89/7.83B 3.43/8.11B

ATVID .19/594M .07/387M 1.38/3.19B 1.47/3.39B

BOOM .43/59M .61/67M 2.18/258M 2.65/297M

CA .35/1.10B .36/1.12B 1.47/4.55B 1.69/4.87B

CHK .88/2.24B .95/2.39B 4.01/8.81B 4.33/10.96B

CPT .90/158M .90/160M 3.62/636M 3.74/671M

CQB 1.09/1.31B -.54/1.08B 1.58/4.83B 1.67/4.92B

CTSH .35/682M .39/748M 1.48/2.88B 1.88/3.78B

GFIG .22/276M .21/270M .94/1.14B 1.12/1.31B

GPRO .36/106M .45/117M 1.76/455M 1.87/489M

ITMN -.60/12M -.58/13M -2.53/43M -2.76/46M

KLAC .57/573M .54/559M 2.72/2.50B 2.40/2.31B

MEE .77/716M .86/756M 3.02/2.85B 5.80/3.59B

MFE .45/369M .48/373M 1.91/1.51B 2.17/1.66B

MIL .85/408M .87/406M 3.61/1.66B 4.13/1.78B

MNST .37/361M .40/360M 1.45/1.46B 1.78/1.58B

MNT .38/106M .29/93M 1.42/409M 1.71/457M

MPWR .20/40M .32/46M 1.03/166M 1.31/191M

OIS .96/578M 1.14/613M 4.62/2.45B 5.27/2.73B

ORH .86/593M .77/597M 3.00/2.68B 3.18/2.26B

SGMS .33/296M .36/311M 1.30/1.18B 1.55/1.25B

SMG 1.92/1.15B -.21/540M 2.02/2.98B 2.16/3.14B

SWIM .17/88M .16/86M .66/354M .67/387M

SYNA .42/93M .59/102M 1.93/356M 2.43/427M

TSRA .08/55M .16/57M .51/233M 1.16/270M

VCLK .17/165M .16/162M .74/689M .83/751M

VPRT .30/107M .30/111M 1.16/397M 1.56/536M

VRTX -.60/69M -.82/44M -2.99/199M -2.96/218M

WRI .78/153M .80/154M 3.18/613M 3.32/628M

WTW .89/416M .71/354M 2.89/1.58B 3.12/1.69B

Good luck today.

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