THURS. JUL. 17 THOUGHTS

By day’s end today, we will have a pretty good grasp of the state of the tech sector. Among others due to report their quarterly earnings today are Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), and Microsoft (MSFT). So much attention has been paid recently to the financial sector –and deservedly so. However, the tech sector has quietly outperformed the broader for a few weeks now. Today will provide a lot of color as to whether these stocks should indeed be trading relatively strong. Typically, GOOG, IBM, and MSFT all tend to offer conservative guidance so pay special attention to whatever they say. This goes back to yesterday’s ‘message of the market’ theme. If as a group they report better than expected numbers and they sell off, it is a sign the bottom for the market – even on a temporary basis- is not in yet. If, however, they report worse than expected numbers and the market shakes it off, that is most definitely an indication that yesterday’s gains are not ephemeral. To a day trader, this is especially important because many scenarios are created trading-wise depending on the outcome of the numbers so make sure you are fully aware of what is going on in all of them to trade not only those stocks, but most any stock tomorrow.

Overnight, stocks in Asia marched in tune with Wall Street’s rebound, bouncing from about 1% to 2% across the board. Oil continued down as well. This morning, look for a strong open on the heels of some more strong earnings in the financial sector. The best day trading plays will be A-b_A2’s to the upside as well as shorting stocks thru unchanged which open higher after a big gain yesterday but are on the verge of declining into negative territory.

Remember how we said these ideas would look a little different during earnings season due to the inexactness and rapidity of the flow? Here goes:

CSIQ- announced share offering at 34. In good market, should have A-B-A2 to upside with preferred buy point at unchanged (35.65). Conversely, in bad market, look to short below 34.

JPM- strong on earnings. A-B_A2 of some sort.

EBAY- very weak numbers. Didn’t really trade much below 26 after-hours last night so no matter what time of day it is, short thru 26 the first time it trades there (if it does). May happen before 7:30AM.

MER, BLK- MER selling stake in Bloomberg…not Blackrock. If MER opens higher and goes toward unch, short…also looking at A-B-A2 of some sort- preferably short side, but doesn’t matter.

YUM- bad earnings…A-B-A2 of some sort

ADS- good earnings…A-b-A2 of some sort

CCK- good earnings…A-B-A2 of some sort

WCG- very weak yesterday; if it opens higher and looks to break unch, short thru unch. Conversely, A-B-A2 of some sort.

BK- earnings not great; if I goes positive, it is a buy thru unch.

BAX- decent numbers; short thru unch and/or A-B-A2 of some sort

HOG- great numbers. A-B-A2 of some sort

JPM- solid numbers. A-B-A2 of some sort, but top trade is that if it gets to 38 pre-hours and reloads around there, short anywhere e below 37.90 (the first time it does it if at all).

UTX- decent numbers. A-B-A2 of some sort


Good luck today.

Companies due to report today and their estimates:

THURS JUL 17 BEFORE

AMFI .09/55M .15/56M -.81/222M 1.15/229M

AMTD .32/610M .32/596M 1.35/2.47B 1.43/2.57B

APH .58/816M .59/827M 2.33/3.26B 2.60/3.50B

BAX .82/3.05B .81/3.01B 3.24/12.21B 3.69/13.18B

BBT .69/1.79B .71/1.83B 2.86/7.27B 3.11/7.74B

BK .76/3.84B .73/3.80B 2.98/15.41B 3.41/16.65B

BLK 1.98/1.32B 2.33/1.43B 8.73/5.51B 10.45/6.24B

CAL -.46/4.05B -1.47/4.15B -4.75/15.42B -1.97/15.92B

CHB .11/325M .18/345M .30/1.28B .62/1.44B

CIT -.3.10/540M .17/533M -4.14/2.37B 1.40/2.63B

CMA .52/679M .57/688M 2.32/2.80B 3.01/2.92B

CY .21/540M .26/562M .91/2.16B 1.46/2.78B

DHR 1.06/3.16B 1.14/3.21B 4.36/12.89B 4.92/13.71B

EDU .01/35M 1.09/107M 1.23/197M 1.72/269M

FCS .17/413M .22/426M .85/1.68B 1.04/1.75B

FHN -.08/547M -.01/545M .00/2.24B .56/2.12B

GPC .79/2.85B .80/2.89B 3.13/11.21B 3.31/11.61B

HBAN .23/621M .21/631M 1.07/2.49B 1.15/2.64B

HNI .22/601M .51/667M 1.54/2.49B 1.95/2.53B

HOG .76/1.42B .86/1.45B 3.06/5.49B 3.38/5.67B

IGT .36/684M .40/727M 1.33/2.62B 1.74/3.00B

ITW .97/4.57B .95/4.46B 3.64/17.78B 4.02/18.90B

JCI .73/9.78B .84/9.94B 2.43/38.69B 2.79/41.30B

JPM .49/16.64B .65/17.47B 2.55/73.34B 3.51/81.42B

KO .96/8.94B .79/8.56B 3.07/33.13B 3.36/35.24B

MEG .06/216M .64/245M .92/901M .85/901M

MMR 1.03/291M .79/309M 2.37/1.19B 3.05/1.30B

MTG -.61/457M -.96/441M -3.92/1.77B -.55/1.86B

NXY 1.29/1.93B 1.40/2.06B 5.57/8.06B 6.15/9.26B

NOK .56/19.99B .60/20.83B 2.49/84.70B 2.73/90.12B

NUE 1.78/6.38B 1.90/6.97B 6.97/24.99B 7.52/27.02B

NVS .93/10.20B .97/10.63B 3.65/41.60B 3.97/44.69B

PNC 1.17/1.86B 1.26/1.92B 4.75/7.51B 5.40/8.08B

PPG 1.54/4.17B 1.51/4.00B 5.38/15.65B 5.99/16.33B

RS 2.10/2.12B 1.94/2.20B 7.26/8.45B 7.65/9.38B

SHW 1.39/2.19B 1.20/2.16B 3.80/7.99B 4.24/8.24B

SPWR .50/343M .57/347M 2.17/1.36B 3.37/1.93B

SWY .52/10.21B .49/10.21B 2.28/45.03B 2.52/46.38B

TXT .97/3.75B .99/3.78B 3.98/15.09B 4.62/16.32B

UMPQ .20/86M .23/87M .90/349M 1.09/367M

UTX 1.30/15.30B 1.30/15.01B 4.89/59.75B 5.44/63.12B

VMI 1.35/480M 1.07/433M 4.74/1.78B 5.55/1.98B

THURS JUL 17 AFTER

AMD -.52/1.45B -.30/1.60B -1.45/6.31B -.64/6.91B

AVCT .43/155M .52/167M 1.78/637M 2.11/680M

BRO .32/248M .30/244M 1.25/986M 1.35/1.07B

BXS .41/177M .42/180M 1.66/716M 1.80/760M

CBST .10/98M .30/106M .98/406M 1.63/510M

COF 1.31/4.37B 1.22/4.42B 5.05/17.85B 5.58/18.23B

CYT 1.16/932M 1.11/938M 4.32/3.79B 4.79/3.99B

ESLR -.10/22M -.08/27M -.24/117M .48/392M

FBC -.02/125M .03/127M -.10/488M .44/495M

GILD .48/1.25B .49/1.29B 1.99/5.17B 2.29/6.10B

GOOG 4.73/3.86B 5.01/4.09B 20.19/16.20B 24.84/20.62B

IBM 1.82/25.92B 1.95/26.07B 8.56/107.03B 9.59/112.17B

LEG .27/1.07B .31/1.11B 1.09/4.20B 1.29/4.30B

MER -1.91/3.27B .61/6.98B -2.35/21.92B 4.24/33.43B

MSFT .47/15.65B .50/15.12B 1.89/60.25B 2.16/67.30B

PMCS .12/137M .12/138M .46/543M .51/608M

RGA 1.48/1.58B 1.53/1.59B 5.77/6.38B 6.71/7.02B

SYK .73/1.68B .67/1.65B 2.88/6.84B 3.44/7.69B

TPX .23/233M .35/267M 1.15/1.02B 1.38/1.07B

ZION .75/627M .91/658M 3.48/2.56B 4.26/2.77B