Friday, July 25, 2008

FRI. JUL. 25 THOUGHTS

The ‘watch list’ is a staple of most traders. Arguably the most common question asked here is: “how do you form your watch list?” There are generally three types of stocks that go on this list. First, the list is especially prescient during earnings season. Every stock that has a 90-day average of 1,000,000 shares traded per day along with a range of at least 20% price movement for the year is included on our earnings list which in turn goes onto the watch list. Second, any stock with major news- no matter the size of the company-is included. For instance, if a stock has a ‘phase III’ approval FDA or a major oil find, the stock is automatically added to the watch list. Finally, a scan is run every night of every stock on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ which traded at least 1,000,000 shares, moved up or down at least 5%, and closed at or near the day’s high or low. By doing this homework, a list of stocks is procured based on a wide range of news and price action with volatility ostensibly assured due to wild action as a result of reactions to news and/or further movement based on strong moves the previous day.

Markets overnight were down in Asia and Europe on the heel of the tumble state-side yesterday. Futures higher this morning; there seems to be aun underlying bid to the market. With the weather perfect today in New York, look for almost all of the action to take place early. It seems in here like the market will hold all else equal as the financials are showing decent strength pre-open.

Reiterating-New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

WYNN- decent earnings; stock traded higher last night initially

JNPR- OK earnings, but a positive conference call

MCHP- decent earnings

BNI- decent report

HUN- ostensibly putting themselves up for sale

MSO- on Cramer

PNSN, QDEL- both strong in closing near their highs

NFLX- good earnings

TROW- good earnings

ACI- very good earnings
Bad-

CB- missed earnings badly

CROX- warned terribly about its outlook

YRCW- warned for year, but has been beaten down…could be interesting to upside

IBKR- terrible earnings

BMC- bad earnings

VSEA- bad earnings

WDC- terrible conference call

RGR- closed near low; likely a short thru today’s low

CACB,ASBC,KBR,AIV- among other smaller financials, all closed near lows

ABFS- down tremendously now in two days; if YRCW mounts a rally, ABFS may get sympathy move

DSL- very weak; may be rumors of going out of business and is short thru unch if it opens higher

SFI, PCBC- both also notably weak



FRI JUL 25 BEF

ALEX .78/500M .77/518M 3.25/2.06B 3.35/2.03B

AXL -.98/514M .02/622M -1.34/2.38B 1.66/2.63B

ACI .64/739M .69/739M 2.67/2.93B 5.86/3.91B

B .60/388M .60/379M 2.35/1.53B 2.64/1.62B

BEC .87/755M .84/739M 3.61/3.09B 4.08/3.33B

BLC .20/193M .24/197M .81/808M .77/782M

BDK 1.42/1.60B 1.37/1.53B 5.32/6.16B 5.60/6.10B

CVH .55/3.02B 1.05/3.04B 3.68/12.07B 4.19/13.16B

FO 1.24/2.06B 1.19/1.97B 4.39/7.97B 4.85/7.83B

HRZ .21/332M .61/351M 1.25/1.33B 1.75/1.41B

IDXX .56/278M .44/261M 1.85/1.07B 2.22/1.20B

IFX ?/2.57B ?/2.64B ?/10.22B .19/9.60B

ITT 1.10/2.93B 1.03/2.81B 4.10/11.52B 4.61/12.21B

LM .13/1.04B .94/1.04B 3.15/4.18B 4.29/4.39B

NFLX .40/338M .31/347M 1.23/1.37B 1.54/1.62B

NTY .70/537M .64/583M 2.69/2.16B 3.11/2.46B

RSG .46/828M .49/830M 1.81/3.26B 2.01/3.39B

TROW .60/568M .63/585M 2.43/2.31B 2.82/2.62B

UCBH .07/93M .07/95M .26/375M .66/422M

Good luck today.

www.protradingnetwork.com

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