FRI. JUL. 18 THOUGHTS

Blog was posted on chatroom very early this morning...had problems with the Blogger website this morning so here is the blog in its entirety as posted on the chatroom:

Arguably, the most uttered investing maxim is “buy and hold.” Because most people are inherently optimistic (as we all should be otherwise, why live?), people tend to think that whatever stock they buy will go up in time. Never mind that times change, situations change, and businesses change. However, there are many periods of time (much less individual stocks) in which this is not true. Ask shareholders of former hot stocks like Hone Shopping Network, Worldcom, Enron, and Boston Market how they feel about the ‘buy and hold’ mentality. On point here, the Dow Jones Industrial Average first closed above 10000 in late March 1999. It is now nine years later and the DJIA is hovering above 11000 adjusted for dividends. Delving deeper into this, it means that the Dow is up just over 1% per annum for nine years when all is said and done. It is statistics such as this which make the very concept of picking a stock and “sticking with it” ostensibly preposterous. In day trading terms, it is the exact same thing. Especially in the recent markets, there have been many traders who have bought or short sold a stock, have it move against them, and they just with it. Now, this may be for mere minutes, but as any day trader who has been around long enough can tell you, an entire day’s income can be lost in mere minutes. So, keep in mind that things change constantly not only in a nine year time span, but also in a nine minute time span.

Overnight, markets overseas were mixed to slightly higher after trying to take into digest Wall Street’s gains from yesterday yet take into account the declines in GOOG overnight. But, the financials have a strong tone this morning and that seems to be lending support quite nicely to this market. Options expiration today and 95 degrees in the Hamptons so get your trading done early.

SGLP- may declare bankruptcy after intense liquidity problems…looking A-B_A2 to downside in particular

C_ very strong earnings…best trade of the day will likely be around 7Amish as there is major action around 18.50. Probably a buy there. Post 9;30AM, A-B-A2 of some sort

ZION- terrible earnings. Looking to buy thru unch.

MER- terrible earnings. Looking to buy thru unch on heels of other financials. If it fails, A-B-A2 to downside

GMXR- major share offering 70.50. If it gets above 70.50, likely a buy.

Slew of banks/brokers…all shorts thru unch if they open higher if market weakens or A-B-A2 to upside if market strengthens: SFI, CBBO, EWBC, GBCI, LEH, CNB, WB, DSL, WFC, BK, USB, BAC, FED, CYN, HBAN, BBT, STT, CMA, PNC, JPM, STI, RF, FMBI

COF- earnings not great- buy thru unch and even like the A_b_A2 to upside in particular

Oils/Energies/Infrastructure- all A-B-A2s depending on oil’s direction-
CLF, ACI, BTU, HES, COG, KWK, ACI, X, NUE, RS, HK

MCHX- closed on low; if opens higher short thru unch

Earnings – all tradable:

FRI JUL 18 BEFORE

C -.59/17.72B 0.34/24.90B -.77/84.05B 2.51/111.08B

GAP -.43/2.93B -.30/2.21B -.87/9.65B .33/9.75B

HON .94/9.22B .95/9.34B 3.79/37.24B 4.29/39.12B

MAN 1.50/5.96B 1.59/6.04B 5.73/23.61B 6.12/24.85B

MAT .03/1.04B .71/1.93B 1.44/6.16B 1.69/6.37B

OSTK -.28/181M -.25/188M -.57/911M -.22/1.05B

SLB 1.12/6.48B 1.26/6.93B 4.78/27.02B 5.89/31.84B

WL .49/184M .60/187M 2.31/753M 2.62/794M

Good luck today.

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