TUESDAY JUN. 24 THOUGHTS

Around this time of year, it can get fairly hairy. Many people take off the July 4th week; it is the full week of the summer vacation for the kids in the New York City area plus it is oftentimes one of the slowest news periods of the year. This year, Independence Day falls on a Friday so Wall Streeters get a rare 3 ½ day weekend (Thursday the 3rd is a half-day). With family and friends in town and the sun shining outside along with the sounds of ice cream trucks going by for those taking ‘staycations,’ it is a period of anomalies for the market. This can be a bit disconcerting for day traders as well. Keeping things totally relevant, with the way the market has fallen in the last few weeks, there will be a massive tug of war in the next few days. With so many people out of town next week, there are a group of people holding things like Citicorp (C) who are scared. But, there are also many hedge funds who are short these type of things. What often happens in a time period like the one we’re in the midst of now is that if no news comes out, stocks bounce in a vacuum-particularly next week- the week of the holiday. People do not want to worry about trading while enjoying the sunshine so many of the funds will likely cover their shorts in the absence of news. However, to create said vacuum, in the absolute immediate-term, it is more than a little disconcerting that stocks just did not bounce yesterday. As day traders, we have to be aware for rather bizarre spikes in particular in selected stocks next week, but must worry more than most are already about further declines in financial stocks in particular for the next few days. There just has been no bounce. So, the theme is the same with one variation: watch the financials, watch oil, go with the trend, but keep all eyes glued even more so than normal because things can get wild very fast.

Overnight, Asian markets were quiet, but things became weak in Europe amid reports of more financial woes and rising oil prices. This trend has extended state-side as well with futures well down again in the early-going.

CSE- major share offering at 11 harking back to last week. It is definitely a buy above 11 as the news will have been factored in. other than that, it is a difficult A-b-A2 unless the market’s decline truly accelerates.

PDO;MXC;ROYL- all tiny oil companies which have exploded again in recent days (PDO in particular). If oil trends down, look to short any of these thru unch assuming they all open higher. If they open a lot higher, likely A-B-A2’s to the downside off of the open.

UPS- warned. Do not know exactly what the trade is here, but noteworthy because the CEO of the company called the American economy “anemic.” Probably an A-B-A2, but if the market goes down a lot, It really really can collapse.

ISIS- received a huge milestone payment from GENZ. Stock bizarrely down. If it gets thru unch, it is a buy. Conversely, a big-time, A-B-A2 to the shrot side if it cannot get going.

HK;IPI;BTU;BHI;APA- all oil companies that should open higher with the same theme as the smaller oils. If they open up and get thru unch, they are shorts.

All financials- should open lower. There are going to be mini short-covering spikes here (witness STI on Friday afternoon). When and if any of them get to unchanged, they are buys thru unch with C already worth noting due to a $3 billion capital infusion from a Kuwaiti entity.

Not much newsflow again; will be a slow period newstime for individual stocks for the next few weeks so a tough environment, but a volatile one. Good luck today.