Tuesday, June 10, 2008

TUES. JUN. 10 THOUGHTS

Fast Money. In this space last week was a whole schpiel about the NASDAQ vastly outperformed the Dow (much less the other broader markets). Guess what happened yesterday? The Dow was up 71 (up 0.6%) while the NASDAQ was down 15 (down 0.6%). Oil was down over 4 dollars a barrel and financials were down too. This is worth discussing again to reiterate how fast the markets are right now. Oil is moving in increments once reserved for monthly moves. Financial stocks are hitting levels not seen for years. A generation ago, the holding periods of equities by big-time money managers were exponentially higher than now. Entities such as hedge funds, day trading, and the increasing utilization of electronic means have allowed for money to slosh around with amazing speed. And that is happening more every day. This is terrific for day traders because if a day trader can simply note which way an entire group is going on any given day, he can do very well. Furthermore, it allows for exaggerated moves on the typical momentum plays we as a group attempt to execute because more people are involved with heightened emotion. Use this to your advantage. Realize that just because Apple (AAPL) is down 2 points does not mean it cannot be down over 10 points as it was at one time yesterday. And it puts into focus the two overriding themes preached here always- a) when entering a trade, know immediately where you are wrong and b) when in a position, realize that something can move a lot farther than you think a lot faster than you think. There is a lot of money to be made- and lost- very fast right now.

Overnight, many of the Asian markets were hammered after being closed on Monday; the Chinese stock market suffered one of its biggest declines in its history. The European markets are down as well. Oil is up- as is the dollar while bonds are down. The only thing missing today is major news flow.

AAPL- reiterated a buy by two major brokerage houses with increased price targets. The stock is trading lower in the downdraft. If it gets to unch, it is a buy.

HK/MOT- Cramer stocks. Don't think MOT will be affected, but HK should be sharply higher...if oil continues strong, HK wil llikely kep going (and vice versa).

CAEI- the stock formerly indicated as RCH. Stock has run up due to NASDAQ transfer. If it opens up whatsoever, it is a short thru unch (and maybe even below unch depending on the action of the stock).

PIR- very weak yesterday. They are acquiring Cost Plus (CPWM). May be weak anew today.

SQNM- after major run-up, it is being sued for patent infringement. Stock should open down. if it goes thru unch, it is a buy.

WNR- has been bludgeoned last few days. if oil is ery very strong today, it is a buy thru unch on short covering.

MA/V- being sued by Discover (DFS). Stocks will likely open down. They are buys thru unch.

ABK- coming out of S&P 500 on the close. If it has a dramatically awful close, it is a buy right on the close due to S&P 500 managers shiftong money around.

Good luck today.

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